10th lesson – 24.10.2011

This lesson’s focus was on forecasting. Truth be told, I thought this was one of the less interesting lessons but I suppose it is a necessary evil as we do need to know how to forecast in order to decide which direction we should take in the near future.

One thing that stood out I think, was the difference between forecasting and predicting. Most people would assume they are synonymous but they surprisingly are not. This probably explains why most people still listen to those people who predict the apocalypse. If I had a dollar for every time others said the world would end and it didn’t, I’d be rich! How I wish there was someone dispensing those dollars.

I think one company that took a bold step after forecasting was Nokia. They pictured where they wanted to be in a few years, that is, as a third credible competitor to the iOS and Android and made drastic changes in order to get there. They decided to abandon their critically acclaimed but unpopular OS, Meego which CEO Stephen Elop described as a “burning platform” in favour of Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7.5 OS, Mango. It was a bold move, one that resulted in their stocks taking a hit. However, I do agree with Elop that this was one of the only things that they could have done. It would have been too hard to develop and promote Meego and joining the wide array of phone producers using Android would ensure they lose their market share. Therefore, this risky move was the only way out. For what it is worth, I am very much in love with the Nokia Lumia 800, their flagship WP7 phone. This is Nokia’s sink-or-swim strategy and hopefully, they forecasted right because right now, the phone is looking really cool, smart and useful. P.S. If anyone could spare me around $700, I’d go buy one now!

9th lesson – 17.10.2011

This week’s lesson was by far my favourite as it focused on exciting emerging technologies that have the potential to change our world. Its always fun to speculate and try to predict what our world would be like in future. In this technological age where change is the only constant, this can be something very difficult to do though. We are definitely moving closer and closer to a world similar to the one portrayed in star wars and that is really cool. On a side note, I am seriously hoping someone out there is developing a real lightsaber. There is truly nothing I want more in life.

One emerging technology that really piqued my interest is augmented reality (AR). It seems really cool and could be very useful when its full potential has been realized. Having all necessary information about a product simply by taking a photo of it before buying it would probably go a long way in helping people to make rational decisions. It could help reverse the trend of impulse buying that is so prevalent today. However, the idea of it becoming too pervasive does scare me. It is frightening to think that in future, when someone takes a photo of you, they would have all the information they would ever need about you at their fingertips. The potential for stalking is simply too great.

Another interesting idea I took from the class is this concept of “new capitalism”. With all the development going into robots, it probably won’t be longbefore every form of manual labour is carried out by robots. Many students of our generation have been conditioned to think that with mechanisation, many people would lose their jobs and that is a bad thing. That’s why it was pretty interesting to hear an opposing opinion from Prof. After thinking about it, I have come to realize that he is right. If we can somehow support all these people who would lose their jobs, then mechanisation can only be a good thing as we would essentially be freeing humans from mundane work bordering on slavery. With robots taking over, people would be able to devote their time not to work but to leisurely activities and that does sound like paradise. By then, capitalism as we know it today would be completely altered. (Dear scientists, please hurry and develop such robots. Sincerely, me)

Unfortunately, human society is not ready to embrace all these emerging technologies yet. One thing that has been repeatedly brought up in our classes are the possible implications these technologies would have on society and it seems like technology is advancing too rapidly for society’s comfort. For example, society’s take on privacy has not advanced as quickly as AR has and thus, our laggy perception of privacy could hinder AR’s development and implementation. Faced with all these technological advancements, we humans had better catch up quickly or risk losing all the benefits they could bring.

8th lesson – 10.10.2011

Today’s lesson was on sustainable energy and its place in our world today and in the future. The idea of sustainable energy has always been something bandied about, a term that almost everyone seems to recognise, but perhaps not many can truly grasp. Before today’s lesson, I always thought it was rather impossible for sustainable energy to truly replace the use of fossil fuels but now I realize i was wrong. I had grossly underestimated the potential in sustainable energy and I dare say so has much of the world.

Who knew that solar energy had so much potential? It was simply mind blowing to see that chart Prof showed us that proved how much energy could be harnessed from the sun. It seems preposterous for Arizona’s deserts alone to be able to supply enough energy for the entire USA but somehow, it is possible. After learning of this, it seems rather silly that more governments and companies have not gone into exploring this area yet.

I think the German government is currently setting a very good example, one that all other governments really ought to follow. For example, in Singapore, it is possible for SMRT and SBS to place solar panels on the roofs of MRT trains. This way, the trains can be powered by solar energy and the excess can be stored and used on rainy days or in underground stations. While the puclic may balk at the initial additional costs, in the long run, it could lead to substantial savings in transport costs and through this, I believe the public can be persuaded to accept this.

Of course, we must be careful in the implementation of sustainable energy sources. Careful planning is necessary. We certainly do not want a situation like the one with China’s Three Gorges Dam which despite saving the earth in some ways, has also led to destruction of people’s homes and the environment through flooding and increased landslides. We also have to maintain the asethetically pleasing aspects of our world. For example, who would want to see solar panels everywhere when visiting the Grand Canyon?

There is no doubt that sustainable energy holds a lot of potential and is more likely than not where the future of energy lies. However, proper change management is also necessary in order to ensure that we do not cause even more harm in our bid to save this earth of ours.

Draft Individual Report

PGD and its role in Gender Selection

Preamble

In the world we live in today, it is practically impossible for the average person to not have heard of In Vitro Fertilization (IVF).  This has led to the possibility of pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) which refers to the procedures that are carried out on embryos before the implantation of them in a woman’s womb.  While it has been traditionally used for the screening of genetic diseases such as Down’s syndrome in embryos, it is now increasingly being used for selecting the sex of one’s child. This paper will focus on the role of PGD in gender selection and the possible implications of it.

In my opinion, the use of PGD to select the gender of one’s offspring can be seen as a revolutionary change as it has the potential to greatly change society if not regulated properly. As it becomes increasingly popular, it will definitely change the way our society works and result in both positive as well as negative implications. While it is still relatively expensive now, it is probably only a matter of time before it becomes cheap enough to be widely available and thus, be able to wrought great change.

Currently, there is still a prevalent preference for male offspring, especially in Asian countries like China and India that has traditionally valued males more for their ability to inherit and carry the family’s name and wealth.  Prior to the introduction of this technology, in many countries with such cultural norms, female infanticide is a widely practiced method of gender selection. According to Michael Sandel, a Harvard University professor and member of the President’s Council on Bioethics, right now, China has a ratio of 117 boys for every 100 girls. In parts of northern India, the ratio is 140 boys for every 100 girls. Female infanticide is no doubt a large contributing factor to this gender imbalance. However, with the introduction of PGD for sex selection, people would no longer have to kill new born female babies. Instead, they could simply choose to have a male baby and thus, contribute to the proliferation of males and a very imbalanced male-female ratio with a much larger percentage of the former. This could then lead to two very different scenarios. First, females could become more highly valued as their scarcity increases.  On the other extreme, women might become nothing more than commodities, used only for their reproductive ability and being seen as something unwanted and thus, less than human. This dystopic future has been envisioned by Margaret Atwood in her book, The Handmaid’s Tale and is also the subject of Manish Jha’s film, Matrubhooi – A Nation Without Women. It could also exacerbate sex trafficking and other crimes against women.

Cultural Preference for males

 “The birth of a boy is welcomed with shouts of joy and firecrackers, but when a girl is born, the neighbors say nothing.”

This is a popular phrase amongst peasants in China and really highlights the cultural preference for male children there. When a boy is born, the family is met with celebration and congratulations and yet when the baby is female, the silence they hear is deafening. The lack of celebration following the birth of a girl is very telling of cultural norms in many parts of Asia, including India, Pakistan and South Korea.

In India, until recently, there were certain billboards encouraging expectant women to abort their female fetuses so as to avoid future dowry expenses with phrases like “Invest 500 (rupees) now and save 50,000 later”.

The preference for male children reflected in the above quotes originates from a number of reasons, one of the most powerful being economic reasons. In many Asian societies, when a son gets married, he is expected or obligated to live with his aging parents and support them financially. In contrast, married women are generally supposed to join their husband’s family and helps to support his parents while paying little or no heed to her own family’s needs. As a Hindu saying puts it, “Raising a daughter is like watering your neighbours’ garden.” Thus, many Asian parents, not wishing to be left to fend for themselves when their children get married, who develop an inclination for having male children.

Other financial reasons include the practice of the dowry system. Dowry refers to the payment in cash or other valuable items like jewelry from the bride’s family to the groom’s family upon marriage. While this system has either been phased out or has become a mere formality in many developed countries, it is still widely practiced in numerous less developed places in Asia such as the remote parts of India. In such areas, the provision of a dowry can place a huge financial burden on the bride’s family. This has then led to a situation where most families prefer having sons because what person in their right mind would rather give money away than receive it?

Another contributing factor is of course, the social norm of adoption of the husband’s surname by married women. In almost every society across the globe, women who marry take their husband’s surnames. In certain societies, mostly in Europe and North America, this is seen as something trivial and increasingly less important. After all, it is just a name. However, in Asia, the preservation of the family name is regarded as something very significant. This then leads directly to a preference for boys. If an Asian man wishes to see his surname live on, he has to ensure that he has a son who can carry it on as opposed to a daughter who will simply give it up upon marriage. This then creates a vicious cycle because the emphasis placed by this father on the preservation of the family name would no doubt rub off on his son who would in turn, want a son as well.

This has been exacerbated by government policies like the One Child Policy in China. To have more than one offspring in China, one has to be able to afford the fines that come with the second and subsequent babies. However, rural Chinese, the ones who generally value male children the most, are often poor farmers who are unable to pay these hefty fines. Therefore, they would want to be certain that their one and only child is a boy.

Due to the above stated reasons, many Asian families have a vested interest in having only sons and no daughters. The gender of a child however, is not something mere mortals can control and thus, has led to the rise of gender selection. While crude methods such as abortions or female infanticide were widely practiced in the past, with the advent of modern technology, alternatives are now available for prospective parents to determine the sex of their child, one of which is Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD).

In Vitro Fertilisation (IVF) and Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD)

IVF refers to the process in which egg cells are fertilised by sperm outside the human body. It has enabled PGD, which is also known as embryo screening, which refers to the procedures that are carried out on embryos before implantation. It can be used to screen for many things in the embryo like diseases, genetic mutations and the gender of the child that will develop from the embryo. While it was initially used for medical reasons such as the identification of children with Down’s Syndrome, it is now increasingly employed for sex selection. This is done by screening the embryos for one with an XY chromosome, something only males have and then implanting this embryo into the woman’s womb.  According to a survey conducted in 2006 on all IVF clinics in USA, 42% of clinics that offer PGD have provided it for gender selection and it is safe to assume that this pattern is reflected in countries all over the world.

[More technical info on PGD?  Eg. The entire process and different methods of doing it?]

Historical Perspective

As mentioned above, before the birth of IVF and PGD, gender selection was already widely practiced, albeit in less accurate and cruder ways. This section of the paper will explore the various methods of gender selection popularly used before the advent of modern technology which has enabled PGD.

Female Infanticide and Neonaticide

Infanticide refers to the killing of a human infant while Neonaticide is the killing of a new born child within 24 hours of its birth. The practice of killing female babies not only stems from a demeaning attitude to women, but also reinforces it. Female infanticide is both a cause and a consequence of the traditional preference for male children and the practice of this still goes on today in the more remote parts of countries like India and China. It is usually carried out by the mother of the infant or the midwife and can be performed in a number of different ways. These include drowning the child in a pail of water, feeding her dry, unhulled rice that will puncture her windpipes, forcing her to consume poison, smothering her with a towel, strangulation or simply allowing the baby girl to starve to death.

This situation has been exacerbated by China’s One Child Policy. In 1984-87, 5 years after the implementation of the policy in 1979, the sex ratio had become 118 boys for every 100 girls, up from 105 boys for every 100 girls. This very clearly proves the direct correlation between China’s policy and the killing of baby girls. Moreover, in 1999, according to Jonathan Manthorpe when reporting on a study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, “the imbalance between the sexes is now so distorted that there are 111 million men in China — more than three times the population of Canada — who will not be able to find a wife.”

This has long since been a widely practiced method of gender selection, one that unfortunately, continues to be used even to this day despite it being highly inefficient. Cost wise, female infanticide is the most inept method to employ. One would first have to invest in carrying the baby to term, paying for things such as hospital or doctor bills and a higher quantity of better food to feed the expectant mother, not to mention the emotional toll the killing of their daughters may exert on the mothers. It also distorts the natural sex ratio leading to a great gender imbalance and reinforces discriminatory and sexist stereotypes towards women by devaluing females.

Sex Selective Abortion

There are currently 3 methods of determining a fetus’ sex when it has already been implanted into the mother’s womb, namely CVS, amniocentesis and ultrasound. Of the 3, the first 2 are not widely used due to the difficulty of the tests and the risk of damage to the fetus and mother. They could result in miscarriage or congenital abnormalities. In addition, they are far more expensive than ultrasound. Thus, ultrasound is far more commonly used. Ultrasound is a simple method that involves scanning the abdomen of a pregnant woman with sound waves that are beyond the frequency of the average human hearing. The sound waves create a visual representation of cells inside her body, including the fetus. This then enables the experts to try to find the fetus’ genitals and thus, determine its gender.

The using of ultrasound scanning comes hand in hand with the abortion of the fetus if it is not of the desired sex. Abortion is the termination of pregnancy at any stage that does not result in birth by the removing or expelling the fetus or embryo from the uterus of the pregnant woman. It can be conducted both surgically and medically. Medical abortions involve the consumption of drugs to eject the fetus from the womb. This however, can only be used within 49 days of gestation. This poses a problem because most women are usually unaware of their pregnancy within the first 49 days and thus, is not such a viable or useful method.

Surgical methods can be employed to terminate one’s pregnancy in the later stages. Within the first 12 weeks, suction-aspiration or vacuum abortion is most commonly employed. It can be conducted though Manual Vacuum Aspiration (MVA) removes the undesired contents by suction using a manual syringe, or Electric Vacuum Aspiration (EVA) abortion which employs an electric pump. Between the 15th and 26th weeks, Dilation and Evacuation (D&E), a method involving the opening of the cervix of the uterus and emptying it using surgical instruments and suction can be practiced.

Alternatively, one can turn to premature delivery through the injection of a substance known as prostaglandin.  From the 16th week onwards, abortions can be conducted via Intact Dilation and Extraction (IDX), which requires surgical decompression of the fetus’s head before extraction. A hysterotomy abortion rather resembles a caesarean section and can be used during the later stages of pregnancy.

Once the prospective mother has determined that the fetus is not of the desired gender, she is able to select any of the aforementioned methods of abortion to end her pregnancy and try again until the fetus is of the desired sex. Due to the prevalence of a cultural preference for males, the chances of the mother choosing to terminate her pregnancy when her child is a girl is much higher.  It is estimated that in Jaipur alone, prenatal sex determination tests result in an estimated 3,500 abortions of female fetuses yearly. In addition, according to UNICEF, in Bombay in 1984, 7,999 out of 8,000 fetuses aborted after prenatal sex determination tests were female.

Current Situation

Sadly, even today, gender selection is still practiced on a large scale. Despite rapid economic development in both India and China, the people of these countries – mostly the ones living in the more remote areas with beliefs steeped deeply in tradition – remain untouched and hence, uneducated about the possible severe repercussions of their actions. Therefore, they continue such age old practices of killing female babies in order to avoid the economic and social problems associated with having daughters. Unfortunately, until development reaches these people and the societal problems like dowry are addressed, the situation is unlikely to change. In this context, the arrival of PGD technology may prove to be both an evolutionary and revolutionary change in addressing the problem gender selection.

Continued Practice of Previous Methods of Gender Selection

Although there are definitely disadvantages to infanticide as shown above, it is still used today due to the convenience of it. This is one method that does not involve any complicated science or machinery and is something that has been proven to work for generations. People also do not need access to technology or go to the trouble of going to a clinic for an ultrasound or an abortion and thus, would not need to pay for these. Since many of the people who perform such a method of gender selection are the rural poor who live in remote areas and are unable to access or afford such technology, this is a significant factor contributing to female infanticide remaining prevalent today.

Sex selective abortion has for a long time, been a prevalent method of gender selection before the invention of PGD.  While it is more physically painful and tiring for the woman involved and also more expensive as compared to infanticide, this method gained in popularity largely because the families could save on the costs of carrying the baby to term, including midwife fees and the added costs of purchasing nutritious food for the pregnant woman. It is also becoming increasingly popular, especially with the development of China and India which has led to the technology needed for ultrasound scanning and abortions becoming more widespread. The increased supply of such technology has led to a decrease in the price of it as well, therefore allowing more and more of the people to afford to this technology for the sake of gender selection.

PGD as an Evolutionary Change

However, these methods are all not as accurate and efficient as genetic testing.  Female infanticide can be emotionally draining for the parents and unnecessary costs would also be incurred in the form of midwife fees, medical bills, costs of buying better food and the reduction of income from the wife’s inability to work while pregnant. Ultrasound scanning can sometimes result in the abortion of a child of the desired gender due to mistake when identifying the sex. Also, occasionally, the fetus’ genitals can be obscured from view, thereby preventing the experts from identifying its gender. In such cases, the prospective mother would have to do the ultrasound scan again at another time, making it more expensive and also, more inconvenient. Furthermore, abortion is painful, tiring and dangerous for the women involved. Once in a while, abortions can also render a woman infertile, thereby destroying any hope the family may have of producing a male offspring.

These have all fuelled the need for a more accurate and efficient method of gender selection and created a viable market for such a method. Therefore, it can be said that PGD is an evolutionary change in the sense that it is something that has been yearned for for years and was invented to address the problems with the existing methods and is thus, a market driven innovation and a summit opportunity.

While both female infanticide and sex selective abortions come with their own set of problems, they continue to exist today because of the limits involved with PGD. Being in its nascent stage, PGD remains a very expensive procedure. Each attempt at IVF typically costs around $9,000. The implementation of PGD then increases this cost by another $4,000 to $7,500 per IVF attempt. The success rate of each round of IVF currently only stands at 10% – 35% of the time, which means that a woman often needs to undergo the process several times to succeed. These costs are also not covered by medical insurance, thereby making PGD a very cost prohibitive procedure that only the privileged few can afford. Therefore, while PGD does have the potential to become a revolutionary innovation in the field of gender selection, it still has a long way to go.

Future Considerations

As mentioned above, since PGD is a relatively new technology, it is still very expensive and not widely available yet. However, with the rapid advancement of technology, I believe that the day when it becomes accessible and affordable for the average parent to consider as a viable option for selecting the gender of their child will be upon us soon. When that day comes, PGD will no doubt bring about great change to the way gender selection has been carried out up until then and is, in this respect, a revolutionary innovation.

PGD as a Revolutionary Change

The revolution that PGD will bring about to gender selection can lead to 2 very different scenarios, a positive one and a negative one. The two are highly contrasting but are both equally possible, although for the sake of mankind, we had all better hope that it is the former that prevails.

Positive Scenario Arising from PGD

With PGD, it is possible for female infanticide and sex selective abortion to be completely phased out. If everyone who preferred a male baby were able to choose to only have a male baby, then female infanticide and abortion would be greatly reduced because there would be no more unwanted female children born. Through this, PGD will revolutionize the concept of gender selection. Instead of gender selection being linked to cruel and barbaric practices like the brutal killing of infants or abortions, gender selection will now seem far less cruel and way more practical. It is likely to be marketed as “family planning” and this will remove the ugly face of gender selection. Without the social stigma of cruelty and primitiveness, gender selection may then be seen as merely a practical choice, something smart to consider and do when planning one’s family and future.

The instances of female children being abandoned would also decrease. In China, there are many parents who abandon their daughters to orphanages instead of killing them at birth as they cannot bring themselves to do so. However, this does not help them very much as such a future for the abandoned baby girls is also very bleak. According to the controversial BBC documentary “The Dying Rooms”, most of the children in China’s orphanages – 95% of which are girls – are often neglected to the point of death. The baby girls are rarely given the attention, care or nutrition that they need and many of them starve to death or die of illnesses in the orphanages. Things are hardly better for the ones who live. It is common for them to be left without any of the necessary stimulation children need. One scenario painted in the documentary depicted young girls all sitting with their arms and legs chained to a bench, staring off into the distance and rocking back and forth. They were left in this state for the entire day and were moved only when it was time for them to be chained to their beds to sleep. With PGD becoming widely available, the parents who are reluctant to raise their own daughter would no longer have to subject them to such misery in orphanages. Instead, they would be able to choose having a son, thereby reducing the cases of female child abandonment. With fewer children left to them, the orphanages may also be able to use the available funds to provide a better life for the children that are left to them. In this way, PGD could revolutionize China’s orphanage system for the better.

It is also possible for PGD to raise the social status of women. Eventually, people will come to realize that it is simply not viable for the population to have so many men and so few women. They will start to realize that in order for their population to survive, more female children would have to be born and brought up properly to allow them to continue reproduction. When that time comes, women’s status in society is likely to rise in line with the basic economic concept of supply and demand. With a lower supply of women, the men would have to compete with one another to get a wife. This will mean that they have to be highly capable and most importantly, kind and respectful to the women in order to entice them to marry them. Women will also become more desired with the lower supply, thus elevating their value in society’s eyes. This could possibly eradicate some of the unfair societal practices like dowry that put women at a disadvantage. Furthermore, by then, people would want a female child, leading to a great shift in societal perceptions of women being inferior to men. In this way, PGD could be at the forefront of a societal and gender revolution.

Alternatively, PGD could be a revolutionary innovation simply offering people a choice. When people are not given the choice of the gender of their child, they tend to be rash and only consider the obvious advantages of having a boy. For example, they may prefer a boy because that means receiving and not giving a dowry, and because a boy is more productive when working on the farms. However, when given a choice, people tend to think more carefully about what they want and weigh the pros and cons thoroughly before making a decision. For instance, when one is told that he cannot choose his between Coca Cola or Pepsi and everyone tells him that Coca Cola tastes better, he is likely to throw away the Pepsi if that is the drink he receives for a chance to get the Coca Cola which apparently tastes better. However, if he is allowed to choose which drink he wants to have, even if everyone tells him that Coca Cola tastes better, he will consider his choice more thoroughly. For example, he may consider that he prefers sweeter drinks with less gas and choose Pepsi instead. This logic can also be applied to gender selection using PGD. When people are given the choice for a male or female child, there will definitely be the far sighted ones who will realize that with the current situation, in the long run, it will be more advantageous to have a daughter and choose to have a baby girl. People are likely to be influenced by the presence of PGD into thinking their choice through very carefully and considering possible societal changes when choosing to have a boy or a girl. In this way, PGD could change the way people think when it comes to selecting the gender of their future child.

Negative Scenario Arising from PGD

Alternatively, PGD’s role in gender selection could take a drastic turn for the worse, leading to a great gender imbalance that can result in a dystopic society, much like the ones depicted in Margaret Atwood’s famour novel, The Handmaid’s Tale and the Indian film, Matrubhoomi: A Nation without Women. While it may seem a little farfetched, such consequences are not exactly impossible and are truly frightening.

Currently, the gender ratio in certain parts of China, India, Pakistan and many other Asian countries is already imbalanced, skewed far too much to the males’ favour to be the work of nature.  In remote parts of China, it stands at 117 boys for every 100 girls while in northern India, the ratio is 140 boys for every 100 girls. As the killing of baby girls is still an ongoing trend, it is relatively safe to assume that within the next decade, this ratio is only going to become more and more imbalanced, ultimately leading to a scenario where there are much fewer females in the world than males. Consquently, the world will come to realize that the human population’s birth rate will become way below replacement level in the near future and given enough time, Man may even become an endangered species. In a bid to protect mankind from extinction, men may start taking drastic measures to ensure our survival, beginning with the collectivization of women as described in The Handmaid’s Tale. In that bleak future, women, like the ones in the novel, may become nothing more than reproductive vessels, collectively owned and used by all the men in society for the sole purpose of ensuring the perpetuation of the human race. Like in the story, women could be reduced to second class citizens with all their rights stripped from them, passed around from one man to the next in a bid to impregnate them.  This could begin from the moment the young women become capable of giving birth and last until they become infertile and therefore, worthless, when they would simply be murdered or cast aside so as not to put unnecessary strain on resources that could be channeled to the people with a higher social status, namely the men. By then, this collectivization of women would no longer seem preposterous and barbaric and to majority, would even appear to be as economically sound as the concept of collectivization of farms. Every woman would no longer be able to think for herself or belong to herself. Instead, her existence would be for serving the greater good of mankind and instead of an individual identity, she would belong to all the men in society, used for the sake of preventing extinction. In that sense, PGD would alter the very concept of a woman: from an independent individual to an organism used only for bettering society at her own expense.

Other possibilities can also be derived from the aforementioned film. Similar to the movie, in a world dominated by men, a baby girl being born would be an extremely rare occurrence. However, her value would lie not in her identity, thoughts, feelings or intelligence but in both her reproductive capacity and her body. In the film, a wealthy man literally buys a young girl from her family and marries her to all 5 of his sons, forcing her to consummate the marriage not only with all of them, but with him as well. Life could imitate art whereby in the future, women would be seen as items. In a world where there is a severe shortage of women, men in society would eventually realize that it is economically viable, even profitable for all females to be traded on the market like objects, prompting all lucky men with daughters to do so. Each lady could then be auctioned off to the highest bidder to do as he wishes with her. It would even be possible for an entire village of men to pool resources to buy a single woman and sexually abuse her repeatedly in order to satisfy their basal urges as well as to produce the next generation except in that world, it would hardly be considered “abuse”. In Atwood’s book, all the women are named after the men that they serve. For example, the protagonist is known as “Offred” (of Fred). When she is transferred to her next master, her name changes accordingly. This is indeed very telling of the situation. In this world of the future, women would be stripped of their individual identities and forced to adopt names like these that reflect their status as nothing more than commodities owned by the men they serve. The excessive use of PGD to selectively bring about the birth of baby boys could possibly lead to the future depicted both in the film and in Atwood’s novel and in this way, revolutionize society and the role of women in it, reducing them to something less than human, merely an object whose sole purpose is reproduction and satisfying the men’s carnal instincts. Such uncontrolled and short sighted misuse of PGD would also change society by causing it to regress to a point before the suffrage movement – with the difference being that instead of women being seen and not heard, they will now be used and not heard – effectively eradicating all progress that society has made since a century ago.

This unnatural gender imbalance resulting from PGD would also lead to an increase in violent crimes against women and other unethical practices like bride buying and sex trafficking. With such a dangerously low population of women, many men would be left without wives, having to resort to paying for a bride. This disgusting phenomenon is already occurring now in parts of India and China, with brides being bought from other parts of the country or neighbouring nations like Vietnam. In India, the procedure is so common that there is even a term for it: “paros”. In order to fund this growing market, women are increasingly being kidnapped from their villages or homes by traders and illegally transported to these countries to be sold. In the future, this pattern is expected to become worse. After the men have become tired or bored with their bought brides, they are almost always killed or sold off to sex traffickers to defray the costs, thus fuelling the sex industry. This industry will also prosper in such an imbalanced world as there would be more men with great sexual appetites but fewer female sex slaves to satisfy them all. This would then naturally result in a need to increase supply to meet the ever growing demand, thereby resulting in even more kidnappings and the selling of daughters, sisters or cousins into the lucrative industry. Moreover, the men who are either unwilling or unable to pay to be sexually appeased could very possibly turn to rape or even gang rape, thus exacerbating the growth rate of violent crimes against women.

As we can see, the excessive use of PGD in gender selection could have very severe consequences, leading to a much less than ideal world. In order to prevent our society from such degradation, we have to control the use of PGD for this seemingly harmless desire to have male offspring.

Conclusion

Future of PGD

Besides gender selection, there are many other uses of PGD, including the screening of potential children for certain fatal or lifelong illnesses such as Down’s syndrome. Even though it is currently only used for these purposes, there are many more possibilities of it uses in the future. For example, at the moment, one of its uses is for the matching of Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) for the birth of saviour siblings. To achieve this end, embryos are screened for the right cord-blood stem cells that could be donated to an existing sibling diagnosed with leukemia and only the ones with the suitable cells are implanted and carried to term. In future, these cells could possibly be manufactured artificially and PGD could then be used to screen these manufactured stem cells for suitability, thereby allowing the proper ones to replace patients’ existing ones to cure them of their leukemia.

PGD could also possibly be used to increase fertility. It could be used to screen all embryos for the one with the highest probability of a successful birth. It is currently not in use as it relies on the assessment of a single cell, thus producing inaccurate results. However, with improvements made to PGD, it may eventually be possible for scientists to identify the embryo most likely to grow into a baby and implant this one into the prospective mother’s uterus, thus making her fertile when she wasn’t before. Alternatively, PGD could be applied for the screening of chromosomal abnormalities such as aneuploidy that is a common cause of infertility. The implanted embryos can be screened to ensure that they do not contain such irregularities, thereby helping to increase the chances of success in IVF treatments.

There are of course, as many other possibilities as humans can possibly think of. The future for PGD looks to be exciting and in a world where parents increasingly want their children to excel at everything, it is highly likely that more and more people will turn to PGD to ensure that their offspring’s genetic makeup not be disadvantageous to them in future, thereby propelling further development in this area. While it can be considered a cloud opportunity right now, as the market for PGD grows, it is my belief that it will slowly transform from a technology driven cloud innovation to a market driven summit innovation.

All in all, while PGD does have great potential to change society for the better, its prowess can also be harnessed to bring about a dystopic future which will only spell doom not just for women, but for Mankind as a whole. In our world today, people increasingly desire and value choice and this no doubt, extends to our offspring as well. If one can choose to have an athletic, smart and beautiful child, why would one not want to (barring religious beliefs)? Thus, the popularity of PGD can be expected to increase exponentially when it becomes widely available and affordable. However, I am of the view that PGD should only be used when necessary. Technology was brought about in a bid to improve our quality of life and thus, its integrity should not be sullied by using it for anything else.  While we may think that having the choice regarding our children’s genetics and gender may improve both their lives and ours, as demonstrated above, this may not be the case. Therefore, PGD and other related technology should only be used when it truly will improve one’s life. For example, people should only use it to screen their prospective children for fatal illnesses or diseases that could cause a great amount of physical and emotional distress (eg. Down’s Syndrome). While there are definitely others that will disagree with me and say that humans should never play God, this is the view that I hold. As long as one’s decisions resulting from the use of PGD will harm no one, can only produce positive results and can change lives for the better, then they should simply go ahead and not be barred from using such technology if they so wished.

References

http://www.eastwestcenter.org/news-center/east-west-wire/battling-a-preference-for-boys

http://www.economist.com/node/15636231

http://www.who.int/genomics/gender/en/index4.html

http://www.dnapolicy.org/resources/PGDSurveyReportFertilityandSterilitySeptember2006withcoverpages.pdf

http://www.bbc.co.uk/ethics/abortion/medical/selective_1.shtml

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2009/04/13/sex-selective-abortions-in-china-have-produced-32-million-extra-boys/

http://www.gendercide.org/case_infanticide.html

http://www.rhtp.org/fertility/pgd/default.asp

7th lesson – 26.09.2011

This lesson’s focus was also on the biobusiness industry, except with an emphasis on GM food. It was pretty interesting to hear about how much the Green Revolution has changed the world. Something as trivial sounding as increasing crop harvesting from once a year to thrice a year can actually result in a great decrease in world hunger. Yet, this is an area that is not given nearly enough attention in the media.

We explored many of the positive impacts of GM food on our planet. For example, with pest resistant crops, the need for pesticide usage will be greatly reduced, thereby decreasing the amount of toxic chemicals we put into the Earth. That then results in a lower chance of our waterways being polluted which in turn reduces the likelihood of a whole host of problems.

However, I believe that the management approach we now have towards GM food can still use some improvement. Traditionally, farmers have collected the seeds produced by their current crop and used them for the planting of the next batch of crops. However, with the dominance of GM food companies like Monsanto, thisis no longer possible. The seeds Monsanto sells to the farmers have been modified such that they are unable to reproduce. This way, the farmers would develop a dependency on them for the seeds everytime they want to plant a new crop. With the seeds not priced exactly cheaply, these farmers may thus be trapped in a never ending cycle of poverty. I do think something has to be done to change this. GM food is used primarily for the alleviation of world hunger, but we must not forget about the farmers.

On another note, like Prof, I am of the view that GM food should be labelled. While it may have done much good for our world and mankind, I do think that we have a right to know what goes into our food even if we could not care less. This will also help to prevent problems in the case of allergies. If one is allergic to penuts for example, and a penut gene is injected into the fish he buys, then certainly this person should have the right to know.

Most of my knowledge regarding GM food prior to this class had been negative. After this class, I think I have developed a more balanced view regarding such technology. However, I do wish we had had the time to shed more light on the negative aspects of it and ways to possibly overcome them.

6th lesson – 19.09.2011

Today’s lesson was on the impact of technology on the biobusiness industry. The first thing that struck me was how big biobusiness really is. For example, things like beauty products. I never knew that they can actually be counted as a part of this industry. I think many people probably also have this common misconception that biobusiness is only about healthcare and biotechnology. And who would have expected this industry to generate so much of the world’s GDP.

Unfortunately, despite all the breakthroughs we have made in the health sector, once again, the people who truly need them are the ones deprived of them. It is simply appalling that these people’s lives are sacrificed just because some corporations want to make as much money as possible. And it seems that the bigger the corporations, the worse this problem is. Prof mentioned that the huge ones are unwilling to provide much needed medicine to the poor unless they are promised at least billions worth of profit. Yet, these are also the very same corporations that can truly make a difference because of their size and available resources and talent.

Another major problem hindering the maximization of biobusiness’ potential is the lack of proper change management. Even at the grassroots level with something as simple as flu vaccine, better change management is needed. It is just disgusting to think that simply because some doctors want to continue making money, they refuse their patients vaccines and consequently, their patients’ rights to permanent good health. Much change management is still needed in the health sectors to ensure that such problems can be eradicated because after all, shouldn’t technology’s prowess be harnessed for improving our standards of living?

I think one method that can be employed to solve these problems is to make information regarding things like medicines and vaccines widely available through the internet. This way, the problem of asymmetric information can be minimized and when patients understand that a flu vaccine exist, they can request for it and thus, no longer be at the mercy of their physician’s less than honourable plans to generate as much revenue from them as possible. Given more time, I would have liked to discuss such solutions more.

5th lesson – 12.09.2011

This week’s lesson foused on ICT (information and communication technology) and its potential as a driver of world change. It seems as if ICT is a very big part of our lives. I mean, everyone in Singapore owns a mobile phone, even the foreign construction workers that people would not really expect to own a cell phone. Everywhere we go, we see a manifestation of ICT, be it in the form of phones, tablets or just a big screen. Yet, after the class, I realized that despite the seemingly omnipresent influence of ICT, we have yet to fully harness the power of ICT for the things that truly matter, like poverty.

For example, why has ICT not been used for modern democracy? In the 21st century, one would expect to not have to queue up for hours under a HDB block just to put a piece of paper into a ballot box in order to vote. So why is it that ICT has not been used for voting? Imagine how much more convenient it would be for people to simply be able to vote online. This way, they can do it on the way to work or from home. That should certainly make it more convenient for people with walking difficulties like the old or the disabled. The counting of the votes would be greatly simplified too. ICT could also be harnessed to improve democracy by putting in place an online feedback system directly to all the separate factions of the government to improve our nation.

However, I suppose it is because of the risks involved. Perhaps the government fears hackers tampering with the results of online voting or some processing error that does not register some of the votes. But surely, in this day and age, someone must be able to create a system that is not susceptible to such problems? Also, it could be due to the results of the online discussion forums the government has put in place to allow Singaporeans to voice their opinions that they are avoiding a formal online feedback system. If the forums have demonstrated anything, it is how easy it is to hide behind anonymity to spew hate and anger without proper reason. However, once again, I am inclined to question if there is no technology sophisticated enough to sort out mindless hate from real constructive feedback? Perhaps the true reason for the lack of such progress is that democracy simply isn’t ready for it.

Another thing that struck me was the theory of a digital divide. No doubt exacerbated by the rapid evolution of technology, a generation gap now exists between people with an age difference of only 3 to 4 years. For example, my 5 year old cousin once asked me why my laptop’s touchpad doesn’t work. I told him it was because I prefer to use a mouse and pointed it out to him. He looked pretty puzzled at it because he has never used one what with being exposed to the Ipad and Iphone while growing up. That really surprised me and I think it really demonstrates this idea of a digital divide very well. Despite both of us having grown up in the digital age, the gap between the technology that we are familliar with can still be so wide. I wish we had had the time to discuss this further in class but as usual, there was time constraints.

Individual Topical Review Paper Outline

Technology and Gender Selection

Preamble

In the world we live in today, it is practically impossible for the average person to not have heard of In Vitro Fertilization (IVF).  This has led to the possibility of pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) which refers to the procedures that are carried out on embryos before the implantation of them in a woman’s womb.  While it has been traditionally used for the screening of genetic diseases such as Down’s syndrome in embryos, it is now increasingly being used for selecting the sex of one’s child. This paper will focus on the role of PGD in gender selection and the possible implications of it.

In my opinion, the use of PGD to select the gender of one’s offspring can be seen as a revolutionary change as it has the potential to greatly change society if not regulated properly. As it becomes increasingly popular, it will definitely change the way our society works and result in both positive as well as negative implications. While it is still relatively expensive now, it is probably only a matter of time before it becomes cheap enough to be widely available and thus, be able to wrought great change.

Currently, there is still a prevalent preference for male offspring, especially in Asian countries like China and India that has traditionally valued males more for their ability to inherit and carry the family’s name and wealth.  Prior to the introduction of this technology, in many countries with such cultural norms, female infanticide is a widely practiced method of gender selection. According to Michael Sandel, a Harvard University professor and member of the President’s Council on Bioethics, right now, China has a ratio of 117 boys for every 100 girls. In parts of northern India, the ratio is 140 boys for every 100 girls. Female infanticide is no doubt a large contributing factor to this gender imbalance. However, with the introduction of PGD for sex selection, people would no longer have to kill new born female babies. Instead, they could simply choose to have a male baby and thus, contribute to the proliferation of males and a very imbalanced male-female ratio with a much larger percentage of the former. This could then lead to two very different scenarios. First, females could become more highly valued as their scarcity increases.  On the other extreme, women might become nothing more than commodities, used only for their reproductive ability and being seen as something unwanted and thus, less than human. This dystopic future has been envisioned by Margaret Atwood in her book, The Handmaid’s Tale and is also the subject of Manish Jha’s film, Matrubhooi – A Nation Without Women. It could also exacerbate sex trafficking and other crimes against women.

Proposed approach

  1. Background – Explanation of cultural preference for males
  2. Background – Explanation of IVF and PGD
  3. Background – Explanation of gender selection
  4. Historical perspective – Traditional methods of gender selection – Female infanticide/Abortion/Other less accurate forms of gender selection
  5. Current Situation – Only some are able to use PGD so infanticide is still widely practiced
  6. Future considerations – Positive and Negative
  • Positive – More choice, decrease in infanticide/child abandonment/abortion, women become more valued
  • Negative – Women reduced to mere objects to be exploited for their reproductive abilities

7. Conclusion – whether PGD should be allowed to be used for gender selection

8. References

4th lesson – 06.09.2011

The first half of this lesson focused on the drivers of world change. We basically ran through a list of things that have the potential to wrought great change in the world. I agreed with most of what was mentioned in the articles except for what they mentioned about Africa. I certainly hope the future for Africa will not be so bleak. They already have a rather sad past – what with slavery and all – and I really hope there will come a time when Africa will finally break out of the poverty cycle and stop being the “trouble region” of the world. I do think that while it may still take a while, there will come a point in time when the Africans simply decide that they are absolutely sick of corrupt governments who cannot be bothered with the well-being of their people and all the ethnic/civil unrest in the region. When that time comes, I believe we will see the meteoric rise of one great leader that will unite them and lead them out of this messed up situation – much like what Mao did for China in the very beginning of the communist revolution. Let’s hope this great leader does not screw them over halfway like Mao did though.  Perhaps when this happen, there will be yet another big change in the world’s status quo again.

I also found the idea of wildcards bringing about disruptive change very interesting too. It got me thinking, if something apocalyptic does occur in 2012 like the Mayans predicted but some human beings still managed to survive, how will this particular wildcard change the fabrics of our world?

Another key takeaway i got from this lesson was the bird analogy that Prof used to explain the reactions of different groups of people to change. However, i think there should be another category added. That of the vultures. Most people in the world do not exactly fall nicely into the eagle, ostrich or dodo categories. Not everyone would dare to swoop in and embrace change right away like the eagle but that does not immediately make them unwilling or oblivious to change like the ostrich and dodo. Instead, I think most people are vultures. We wait for the eagles to swoop in and test out new innovations and run with them and only when they seem to do well with them do we move in and pick up the remains. While it may not be the most ideal thing to do in the business world, I think it is the most accurate description of the average person.

Overall, I would rate the class an 8/10. It was an interesting class and provided some fresh insights that had never really occurred to me before. I would have liked to discuss the African issue more and explored ways for them to keep up with progress in the rest of the world though.

3rd lesson – 29.08.2011

Prof Shahi showed us a video today about how the products we use are created and then discarded. Upon watching the video, i realized that i had watched it before in secondary school when we were studying about the environment. It is a good video and rather interesting due to the animations so i would have liked for the class to have watched the whole thing and discussed it.

We spent most of the first half of the lesson discussing technology, industrialization and its impact on the environment. This reminded me of this theory i read some time back. According to the theory, the environmental issue is kinda like the prisoner’s dilemma. From Wikipedia, “the prisoner’s dilemma is a fundamental problem that demonstrates why two people might not cooperate even if it is in both their best interests to do so”.

This is an example of the prisoner’s dilemma from Wikipedia: “Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated the prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal. If one testifies for the prosecution against the other (defects) and the other remains silent (cooperates), the defector goes free and the silent accomplice receives a one-year sentence. If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only one month in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each receives a three year sentence. Each prisoner must choose to betray the other or to remain silent”.

The environmental issue is very much like this. If for example, only one country, USA, chooses to sacrifice some money to invest in and implement green technology while another, China does not, then USA would be the only one to bear the costs while China continues freely polluting the environment and accelerating economic growth. In this situation, only China gains while USA loses.

However, if both of them choose to only focus on their own economic growth and ignore the hazards of the environment, then they both suffer because in the long run, the environment would be unable to withstand anymore abuse and the earth would become an uninhabitable place.

On the other hand, if they both work together, pooling resources and money to protect the environment, they both make a loss in the beginning but ultimately, will gain as they can continue growing – albeit at a slower rate – while continuing to live on this planet.

From this, we can tell that it is actually beneficial for all countries in the world to work together and yet, as selfish human beings, we are unable to look past our own immediate losses.

The second half of the lesson concentrate on technology and innovation management and i really liked the valley-summit-cloud diagram Prof showed us. I think it quite clearly illustrates the ever changing nature of the business world and thus, reminds us of the need to constantly improve ourselves to stay ahead of the game.

As an inspiring entrepreneur (hopefully), i was also quite intrigued by his explanation of the rda model for creating a marketable product and i think that certainly helped to organize my thoughts and plans better. Perhaps one day, it will come in handy when i am ready to start my own enterprise. 🙂

Overall, i would rate the class 7/10 partly because i think most of the first part of the lesson was just a reiteration of something that most of us already know but are simply to lazy to put in practice.